Friday, December 8, 2017

The Sports Examiner's Heisman Ballot and Playoff Predictions

This edition of our Heisman Watch will be a two-for-one special. First, we'll submit our mock Heisman ballot (since we don't have a real vote) and make our predictions for the College Football Playoffs. Before we get started, I want to say thank you to everyone who followed along with our Heisman Watch this season. This blog doesn't really have a big audience, but we want to make every reader matter. Let's get started.

3. Lamar Jackson, Louisville

Statistically speaking, Jackson had just as incredible a season as last year, when he won the Heisman. He's thrown for 3,489 yards (down from 3,543 last year), 25 touchdowns (30 last year), six picks (down from last year's nine), and his rating increased from 148.8 to 151.5. His rushing numbers are also similar: 208 carries for 1,443 yards and 17 touchdowns for a 6.9 average (he accumulated 1,571 yards and 21 touchdowns on 260 carries for a 6.0 average). But the difference this year is the fact that his Louisville Cardinals have struggled mightily, especially against better teams. Were it not for his stellar play, they might not have even reached 8-4. Still, Jackson deserves a ton of credit for his incredible stats and his return trip to New York is well deserved.

2. Bryce Love, Stanford

Love has made Stanford fans forget all about Heisman runner-up Christian McCaffrey. On 237 carries, the explosive back ran for 1,973 yards and 17 touchdowns for an incredible 8.3 average. By the way, his 1,973 rushing yards are second in the nation only to SDSU's Rashaad Penny. His average is fifth in the nation and his Cardinals won the Pac-12 North before falling to USC in the Pac-12 title game.

1. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma

Unfortunately for our other finalists, the Heisman race has been over for weeks. Baker Mayfield has been sensation all season, even in Oklahoma's solitary loss, and has positioned the Sooners as the #2 team in the country with a shot at winning the program's first national title since 2000. His 4,340 passing yards are second only to in-state rival Mason Rudolph, his 41 passing touchdowns trail only Mizzou's Drew Lock, and his 203.8 rating leads his closest competitor by 19 points. It's not a question of whether Mayfield will win the Heisman, it's by how much.

Playoff Predictions:

#1 Clemson vs. #4 Alabama

In a rematch of last year's national championship, it will be top-ranked Clemson against one-loss Alabama. These two teams match up well but the key for Clemson will be QB Kelly Bryant. Although he has been doing his best Deshaun Watson impression this year, he's not Watson. The Texans star has a much better arm and much more big-game experience. Bryant is by no means a scrub but he isn't equipped to deal with that nasty Crimson Tide D. Expect Minkah Fitzpatrick and company to dominate Bryant and lead their team to victory.

#2 Oklahoma vs. #3 Georgia

It's hard to miss thanks to Baker Mayfield's stellar play, but Oklahoma's offensive line might be one of the country's best. They should be able to stop Georgia's ferocious rush attack, which is definitely their strongest aspect. If you take that away, then Oklahoma definitely has the upper hand. Georgia QB Jake Fromm has played well this season but has tended to make careless mistakes and slip up when the pressure gets to him. Baker Mayfield on the other hand, is playing in his second straight playoffs and shouldn't have any extra pressure. His composure and big-play ability, along with TE Mark Andrews, will give the Sooners the W.

#2 Oklahoma vs. #4 Alabama

This is a dream match: Oklahoma's high-powered offense against Alabama's hard-hitting defense. That being said, this game will likely rest on the shoulders of Alabama's Jalen Hurts. Throughout his collegiate career, Hurts hasn't been asked to do a whole lot. He'll throw about 17 times a game while the offense mainly runs the ball. He has often struggled in big games (like in this year's Iron Bowl) and that could really cost the Tide here.

Winner: Oklahoma Sooners

Thanks for reading everyone

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Heisman Watch Week 12

We've reached that point of the season where we only have five realistic candidates. Granted, Baker Mayfield has it completely locked up, but a few other guys have the potential to make it at least a little interesting. Let's get started.

5. Lamar Jackson, Louisville (Last Week: 6)- Jackson's redemption story this year has been incredible. After completely dropping out of the Heisman race thanks to a string of losses, but thanks to his incredible season is now back in the Heisman conversation. He won't repeat but has an incredible chance of making it back to New York. If he plays well enough, he could even finish in the top three.

4. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (Last Week: 4)- Taylor (and the entire Wisconsin offense) played very well against that tough Michigan defense, which is exactly what Taylor needed to boost his Heisman campaign. In 19 rushes he accumulated 152 yards for a 6.9 average. If he has a big

3. Saquon Barkley, Penn State (Last Week: 3)- Barkley had his first great game in weeks as he ran for 158 yards and three touchdowns on 17 carries. The Nittany Lions beat the pesky Nebraska Cornhuskers by 12 and are currently ranked tenth.

2. Brice Love, Stanford (Last Week: 2)- Although he had a bum ankle Love still ran for 101 yards and one touchdown on 14 carries. He's still quite a way from Mayfield but his stock will improve with a great performance against Notre Dame this week. 

1. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (Last Week: 1)- The story this week was not about Mayfield's performance against Kansas but rather his disrespectful crotch-grabbing gesture. Although he later apologized for it, there is no doubt that a few Heisman voters will downgrade Mayfield. After all, a Heisman winner is supposed to display outstanding character on and off the field (except for Jameis Winston apparently).

Thanks for reading everyone

Friday, November 17, 2017

Heisman Watch Week 11

In terms of the Heisman race, College Football Playoffs, and general insanity, Week 11 had it all. It was hard to keep track of it all. Miami picked up its biggest win of the season by defeating #3 Notre Dame, Ohio State absolutely destroyed Sparty, unranked Stanford upset #9 Washington, #1 Georgia picked up its first loss of the year, Michigan actually got some good quarterback play, Josh Jackson continued to be the most exciting player on the defensive side of the ball, #2 Alabama escaped #16 Mississippi State, Baker Mayfield made minced meat out of the Horned Frogs, the Cowboys outlasted the Cyclones in a thriller, and so much more.

But of course, we're here to see how this all affects the Heisman race. For the second week in a row, we have six players listed. Let's get started.

6. Lamar Jackson, Louisville (Last Week: NR)- Looking back now, I may have written off Lamar Jackson a little early. Sure, he picked up a few too many losses for my taste, but his performance this season has been nothing short of sensational. He is now the only player in FBS history to have 3,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards in two different seasons. He's definitely not going to repeat as Heisman winner but should get some votes. He may even be invited to New York.

5. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State (Last Week: NR)- Just like with Jackson, I may have written Rudolph a little prematurely as well. In the best game of the week, Rudolph and #15 Oklahoma State knocked off #21 Iowa State. Rudolph threw for 376 yards and three touchdowns while going 25 for 31. The gunslinger leads the nation in passing yards per game and is third in passing efficiency.

4. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (Last Week: 5)- He may be the fourth leading rusher in the nation, but it still feels like he is flying a little under the radar. Against #20 Iowa, Taylor ran for 157 yards on 29 carries. He didn't score but still had a nice game here. Now that Wisconsin is a true CFP contender, expect Taylor's stock to rise. He also plays in the game of the week in Week 12 against #19 Michigan in Madison.

3. Saquon Barkley, Penn State (Last Week: 2)- How the mighty have fallen. Just a few weeks ago, it seemed like Barkley was the easy pick for the Heisman. Now, he'll be likely to be the runner-up. In four of his last five games, he has failed to record at least 100 yards from scrimmage.

2. Brice Love, Stanford (Last Week: 3)- There's a good chance that Love is the best RB in the country. For a while, it seemed like Barkley was the easy choice, but Love has at least made the conversation interesting. He's a dynamic, thrilling runner with huge big-play ability. In Stanford's big win over #9 Washington, Love ran for 166 yards and three touchdowns.

1. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (Last Week: 1)- A few weeks ago, we proclaimed Barkley as the clear Heisman front-runner. Now, Baker Mayfield is in that position. He cut through #6 TCU's defense as he threw for 333 yards, three touchdowns, and zero picks. He also added 50 yards on the ground.

Thanks for reading everyone.

Thursday, November 9, 2017

Heisman Watch Week 10

As we get closer to the Heisman Trophy presentation, our field of contenders slowly dwindles. This week we see three players fall off: J.T. Barrett, Mason Rudolph, and Trace McSorley (all quarterbacks who lost in Week 10, coincidentally). Where do the remaining six players stand? Let's get started.

6. Jalen Hurts, Alabama (Last Week: 8)- At this point, the real question is whether or not Hurts will get any Heisman votes and all. Despite being in a similar situation last year, Hurts got zero votes. He has played a little better this season, though he has yet to have a standout game. His only chance at winning the award is if the rest of the contenders fall, and Hurts is the last man standing.

5. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (Last Week: 7)- It's clear Taylor is healthy again. In a 45-17 romp over the Hoosiers, Taylor had 29 carries for 183 yards and one touchdown. Taylor is very much the odd man out among the running back group of Barkley, Love, and Adams, so he's going to need some incredible performances to even make it to New York City. If not, he'll get a few third-place votes, but will not be anywhere near the top vote-getters.

4. Josh Adams, Notre Dame (Last Week: 4)- Adams left Notre Dame's win over Wake Forest early but stays in the Heisman conversation thanks to ND's win. He leads FBS in rushes of at least sixty yards with seven.

3. Brice Love, Stanford (Last Week: 3)- The biggest thing going for Love's Heisman campaign was that he led the country in rushing. Unfortunately, that distinction now belongs to SDSU's Rashaad Penny. But there is another stat that helps Love: he has a rush of at least 50 yards in every game this season.

2. Saquon Barkley, Penn State (Last Week: 2)- Well, it happened. The unthinkable happened. For weeks sportswriters proclaimed that the Heisman race was all but over; that Saquon Barkley was guaranteed to take home the hardware. Now, Barkley is coming off his second straight game of limited productivity. More importantly, the Nittany Lions lost both of those games and are now virtually eliminated from CFP contention. Barkley will still make it to New York, but he's no longer the favorite to win.

1. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (Last Week: 1)- What more can I say about Baker Mayfield that hasn't been said already. The man played like he was possessed on Saturday as this Sooners defeated their in-state rivals, the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Not only did Mayfield play like the best quarterback in the nation, he played like the best player in the nation. How else do you explain his 598 passing yards and five touchdowns on just 24 attempts (besides Hollywood Brown)?

Thanks for reading everyone. 

Saturday, November 4, 2017

Heisman Watch Week 9

Today features one of the biggest games of the entire season: #5 Oklahoma vs. #11 Oklahoma State. Besides playoff consequences, there are also major Heisman implications. The losing team's QB could be (and probably will be) eliminated from the race. Let's get started.

9. Trace McSorley, Penn State (Last Week: 4)- McSorley falls five spots after losing to Ohio State. Unlike Barkley, McSorley takes a lot of the blame for the Nittany Lions falling, though he did lead PSU in rushing. McSorley was already struggling with getting recognition, now he finds himself with his Heisman campaign nearly done. 

8. Jalen Hurts, Alabama (Last Week: 9)- Hurts had a bye in Week 8 but moves up thanks to McSorley's fall. He faces his biggest test of the season so far when he and the Crimson Tide take on #19 LSU. 

7. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (Last Week: 6)- The freshman left the game early with a left leg injury and that hurt his stats, as he had only 12 rushes for 73 yards. Wisconsin still managed to beat Illinois 24-10. 

6. J.T. Barrett, Ohio State (Last Week: 8)- Barrett had his potential Heisman moment as his Buckeyes defeated #2 Penn State and gave them their first loss of the season. Barrett was absolutely sensational, as he threw for 328 yards and four scores. He also ran 17 times for 95 carries (giving him a 5.6 average). All of a sudden, Barrett is looking like a Heisman finalist. 

5. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State (Last Week: 5)- Like I said in the intro, Rudolph needs to beat Oklahoma to stay in the Heisman conversation. Even if he doesn't have a great game, the win should be enough. 

4. Josh Adams, Notre Dame (Last Week: 7)- Adams made short work of the great NC State defense (spearheaded by elite draft prospect Bradley Chubb), giving him and the Irish back-to-back wins over Top 15 teams. With his 202 rushing yards in this game, Adams has three 200-yard games this season. He also ran for a touchdown here. 

3. Brice Love, Stanford (Last Week: 2)- Love did not play in Stanford's gritty 15-14 win over Oregon State, as he had an ankle injury. Despite not playing this game, he still leads the nation in rushing. 

2. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (Last Week: 3)- Mayfield beat Texas Tech (his favorite team) as he threw for 281 yards and four touchdowns while also adding a score on the ground. It's pretty evident that Mayfield is currently the best QB in the country. 

1. Saquon Barkley, Penn State (Last Week: 1)- Barkley had easily his worst game of the season against Ohio State. Not only did the Lions lose, but Barkley ran for only 44 yards and one touchdown on 21 carries. He did have four catches for 23 yards, but it wasn't enough to save the day. If you remove his 36-yard TD run, his remaining 20 carries only netted eight yards. He still holds on to the lead here, but it sure is close. Don't be surprised if Mayfield takes the top spot next week.

Thanks for reading everyone. 

Friday, October 27, 2017

Heisman Watch Week 8

We open this week with a eulogy to Rashaad Penny. His brief Heisman campaign was the only hope for a smaller school player to win, but that hope has been snuffed out. That being said, his departure from our Heisman watch does not really affect the chances of a running back winning. This year is a bit of an aberration, as this is very much a quarterback-dominated award. In fact, there have only been two running backs to buck the QB trend and win the Heisman: Mark Ingram and Derrick Henry (Reggie Bush had his trophy vacated). This year we are almost guaranteed to see a running back take home the hardware. In fact, we might only see one QB invited to New York City. What a strange year this is. Also, we are finally cutting the list down to nine players. The number of guys who can win is slowly dwindling. Let's get started.

9. Jalen Hurts, Alabama (Last Week: 8)-. Another week, another typical game for Hurts. Alabama won 45-7 against fellow SEC team Tennessee while Hurts had good, not great, stats. He went 13 for 21 for 198 yards, a touchdown, and zero picks.

8. J.T. Barrett, Ohio State (Last Week: 10)- Barrett has been incredible since his Buckeyes lost to Oklahoma in Week 2. He has yet to throw an interception and OSU has not lost a game. If they can beat Penn State this week, Barrett will be a true Heisman contender and OSU will have a shot at making the playoffs.

7. Josh Adams, Notre Dame (Last Week: 7)- One of the biggest pros for Josh Adam is his strength of schedule. He's already faced Georgia, Michigan State, and USC and has yet to face North Carolina State, Miami (Fl), and Stanford. It's one of the toughest schedules in the country and will certainly legitimize Adams's Heisman chances. He had a spectacular game against USC in Week 8, even though he was slightly overshadowed by teammate Brandom Wimbush. The only blemish on the speedster's record is his 53-yard performance against Georgia. But seeing as Georgia has one of the best defenses in the country, that's a little understandable.

6. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (Last Week: 6)- Taylor has come out of nowhere to become a fringe Heisman finalist. On 22 carries against Maryland, he ran for 126 yards and one touchdown. Taylor has run for at least one touchdown in each game this season.

5. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State (Last Week: 4)- If you like stats, then Rudolph's your guy. The Cowboy leads the nation in passing yards and yards per game. He needs to beat Oklahoma and make the playoffs in order to keep this campaign going.

4. Trace McSorley, Penn State (Last Week: 5)- I'm honestly very surprised that McSorley has made it this high here. He continues to get overshadowed by Barkley but has managed to play very well and withstand the emergence of players like Adams and Taylor.

3. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (Last Week: 3)- Mayfield's 200.4 passer rating is the best in college football and has only thrown two interceptions this season (hi Sam Darnold). He's the best chance of any non-RB to win the Heisman.

2. Bryce Love, Stanford (Last Week: 2)- The Stanford Cardinal leads the nation in rushing yards and will probably be the season's rushing leader. He's an incredible talent that defies all expectations or the human body.

1. Saquon Barkley, Penn State (Last Week: 1)- It seems a bygone conclusion that Barkley will win the Heisman. After all, even one of the best defenses in the country couldn't slow him down. He is one of the best runners in the country and on top of that, he leads Penn State in receptions. He also benefits from playing on the big state, something that Love does not have. You may think that's unimportant, but it's the reason why Derrick Henry beat out Christian McCaffrey (also from Stanford) to win the Heisman two years ago.

Thanks for reading everyone. 

Monday, October 23, 2017

Heisman Watch Week 7

We start this week's rankings by saying goodbye to Luke Falk and Lamar Jackson, both of whom are no longer in the Heisman race. Falk threw five interceptions against unranked Cal while Lamar Jackson and Lousiville fell to Boston College. Let's get started.

10. J.T. Barrett, Ohio State (Last Week: NR)- Barrett and Ohio State have been absent from the national conversation since they lost to Oklahoma but that all changed this week. The Buckeyes steamrolled Nebraska as Barrett threw for five touchdowns and ran for two more.

9. Rashaad Penny, San Diego State (Last Week: 4)- I told you last week, SDSU needed to stay undefeated in order for Penny to win the Heisman. Unfortunately, they lost by 17 points to unranked Boise State and tumbled from the rankings. Penny meanwhile, only ran for 53 yards and one touchdown on 21 carries.

8. Jalen Hurts, Alabama (Last Week: 9)- Hurts had a very typical Hurts game in Alabama's win over Arkansas. He went 12 for 19 for 155 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He also ran for 41 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries.

7. Josh Adams, Notre Dame (Last Week: 8)- Adams was on a bye this week but moves up thanks to other players slipping. If he wants to move into the top five, he'll need to keep having big games and long runs.

6. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (Last Week: NR)- The talented freshman from Wisconsin makes his debut here after running for 219 yards and one touchdown against Purdue. On top of that, Wisconsin is undefeated and a national title contender (albeit a sneaky one). 

5. Trace McSorley, Penn State (Last Week: 5)- McSorley had the week off in Week 7.

4. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State (Last Week: 6)- Rudolph and the Cowboys aired it out in their win over Baylor. Rudolph threw for 459 yards and three touchdowns as Oklahoma State won by 43 points.

3. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (Last Week: 3)- A week after losing their first game of the season to unranked Iowa State, the Sooners bounced back by beating the Texas Longhorns. The score was a little closer than you would like (29-24), but a win is a win. Mayfield threw for 302 yards and a score while also running seven times for 27 carries.

2. Brice Love, Stanford (Last Week: 2)- Love had yet another big game as the Cardinals whooped Oregon. The dynamo ran for 147 yards and two scores as Stanford won by 42 points.

1. Saquon Barkley, Penn State (Last Week: 1)- Despite Love playing well and Barkley having a bye week, the Nittany Lion retains our top spot.

Thanks for reading everyone.